36 hours

[davidn]

This election's absolutely killing me. I thought it was tense in September, and have watched the poll numbers daily since then, but nothing can describe what it's like here in the thick of it - there's absolutely no escaping it. Obama's been on television telling people not to get cocky even though he's miles ahead, McCain's been on television telling people how pleased he is he's going to win even though he's miles behind, and the conflicting numbers from all over the place put me in real doubt that anyone can guess what's going to happen tomorrow.

I'm surprised, in fact, that some sources say it's so close - a gap of a few percent is significant, of course, but in Britain we just don't let anyone as stupid as the current runners-up anywhere near leadership of the country (unless they're really entertaining). Though I know that Obama is virtually certain to win all the states that Kerry did and then just has to win one or two of the eight states that he has slightly more than a 50% chance in, that a computer simulation of all the possible outcomes put Obama's victory at a chance of 99.8%, that the Democrats are overwhelmingly ahead in early voting, and that even McCain's home state of Arizona is looking a bit weak at the moment... there's still a tiny, tiny doubt there. Especially as the numbers seem to be narrowing very slightly towards the end. And it's pretty painful - sometimes you just want to hibernate for a while and wake up when it's finally all over.

There are two large difficulties with the polls this year - the idea that people might say that they've voting for Obama in an overcompensation for their subconscious fear of racism and then not really go for him on Tuesday, and the thought that with so many new voters this year on Obama's side but not being polled, his lead might actually be larger than thought at the moment. Ideally these two effects would just cancel each other out, but they really could mean anything for the numbers. Another problem is that so many places seem so spectacularly unprepared for the election taking place - you would think it would have been pretty difficult to miss for the last couple of months - and queues about eight hours long have already been reported in some states where early voting was open. And this is projected to put people off a bit. It seems that this year, rather than the actual number of voters, the election will be entirely decided on which side has the most weather resilience and bladder control.

So I can only say to everyone what I said a week ago as well - if you're in America, and you can, just vote. For whoever you believe in - one of the two main parties or independents - because like I've said before I can guarantee you that you'll miss that right once you don't have it. I can only wait for the result, and leave you with this song that was being bandied about like the Hymn of the Fayth as a ray of hope all over the nations a couple of months ago. His progress so far has been amazing, for someone who I had hardly heard of a year ago - now he just needs to finish the race. It has to happen this time. Please.

Just 36 more hours. I hope that you get the result that you want. (Unless you're voting for the Republicans, in which case I wouldn't be telling the truth if I said anything other than I hope it goes positively disastrously for you.)

Comments

Re: just because your party's supporters are ashamed of themselves...

[lordrosemount.livejournal.com]

As a principle that might be quite true, but I still don't see why it justifies the existence of the so-called 'Bradley Effect'. Again, why should a person lie? Unless some pollster has been ringing up and saying "If you answer 'McCain' to the following question, I shall consider you a racist. Now, who do you intend to vote for?", there's utterly no reason why anyone would imagine that they were somehow compelled to say they were voting Obama when prejudice meant they wouldn't - it just defies all reason and common sense. Again, there might be a reason why some kooks might declare themselves 'undecided' when they're not (which is what the 'Bradley Effect' really is), but they certainly wouldn't say they were voting for Obama (when they weren't) based on that.

As for the 'people in the household overhearing' bit, we might equally imagine it having the opposite effect - if there's a racist listening in on your call and you felt pressured to avoid confrontation with them, you might well answer that you're voting McCain even though you actually vote Obama in the privacy of the polling booth. It's no indicator of systemic polling bias either way.

Re: just because your party's supporters are ashamed of themselves...

[diarytypething.livejournal.com]

I wasn't defending the Bradley Effect; I just said that there's a lot of evidence that people lie in opinion polls, and several reasons that motivate them to do so, but I didn't specify what the lie is. Now, I'm not saying that staunch Republican supporters would lie about how they would vote, because if you're really into the politics you might not worry so much about how others perceive you, but those who are less loyal to one party will be more easily swayed. Someone who hasn't really decided might give the first name that enters their head just to get rid of the interviewer - there's less incentive for deep contemplation when you're not in the voting booth - or they might have no intention of voting but say their politically motivated friend or relative is listening and they want to avoid another lecture on the importance of exercising their democratic rights.

Additionally, you have to remember that this is all taking place in another country, where people are generally very sensitive about race and racism, and unlike here, they talk about it. "Affirmative action" is far more emotive than "equal opportunities".