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This election's absolutely killing me. I thought it was tense in September, and have watched the poll numbers daily since then, but nothing can describe what it's like here in the thick of it - there's absolutely no escaping it. Obama's been on television telling people not to get cocky even though he's miles ahead, McCain's been on television telling people how pleased he is he's going to win even though he's miles behind, and the conflicting numbers from all over the place put me in real doubt that anyone can guess what's going to happen tomorrow.
I'm surprised, in fact, that some sources say it's so close - a gap of a few percent is significant, of course, but in Britain we just don't let anyone as stupid as the current runners-up anywhere near leadership of the country (unless they're really entertaining). Though I know that Obama is virtually certain to win all the states that Kerry did and then just has to win one or two of the eight states that he has slightly more than a 50% chance in, that a computer simulation of all the possible outcomes put Obama's victory at a chance of 99.8%, that the Democrats are overwhelmingly ahead in early voting, and that even McCain's home state of Arizona is looking a bit weak at the moment... there's still a tiny, tiny doubt there. Especially as the numbers seem to be narrowing very slightly towards the end. And it's pretty painful - sometimes you just want to hibernate for a while and wake up when it's finally all over.
There are two large difficulties with the polls this year - the idea that people might say that they've voting for Obama in an overcompensation for their subconscious fear of racism and then not really go for him on Tuesday, and the thought that with so many new voters this year on Obama's side but not being polled, his lead might actually be larger than thought at the moment. Ideally these two effects would just cancel each other out, but they really could mean anything for the numbers. Another problem is that so many places seem so spectacularly unprepared for the election taking place - you would think it would have been pretty difficult to miss for the last couple of months - and queues about eight hours long have already been reported in some states where early voting was open. And this is projected to put people off a bit. It seems that this year, rather than the actual number of voters, the election will be entirely decided on which side has the most weather resilience and bladder control.
So I can only say to everyone what I said a week ago as well - if you're in America, and you can, just vote. For whoever you believe in - one of the two main parties or independents - because like I've said before I can guarantee you that you'll miss that right once you don't have it. I can only wait for the result, and leave you with this song that was being bandied about like the Hymn of the Fayth as a ray of hope all over the nations a couple of months ago. His progress so far has been amazing, for someone who I had hardly heard of a year ago - now he just needs to finish the race. It has to happen this time. Please.
Just 36 more hours. I hope that you get the result that you want. (Unless you're voting for the Republicans, in which case I wouldn't be telling the truth if I said anything other than I hope it goes positively disastrously for you.)
I'm surprised, in fact, that some sources say it's so close - a gap of a few percent is significant, of course, but in Britain we just don't let anyone as stupid as the current runners-up anywhere near leadership of the country (unless they're really entertaining). Though I know that Obama is virtually certain to win all the states that Kerry did and then just has to win one or two of the eight states that he has slightly more than a 50% chance in, that a computer simulation of all the possible outcomes put Obama's victory at a chance of 99.8%, that the Democrats are overwhelmingly ahead in early voting, and that even McCain's home state of Arizona is looking a bit weak at the moment... there's still a tiny, tiny doubt there. Especially as the numbers seem to be narrowing very slightly towards the end. And it's pretty painful - sometimes you just want to hibernate for a while and wake up when it's finally all over.
There are two large difficulties with the polls this year - the idea that people might say that they've voting for Obama in an overcompensation for their subconscious fear of racism and then not really go for him on Tuesday, and the thought that with so many new voters this year on Obama's side but not being polled, his lead might actually be larger than thought at the moment. Ideally these two effects would just cancel each other out, but they really could mean anything for the numbers. Another problem is that so many places seem so spectacularly unprepared for the election taking place - you would think it would have been pretty difficult to miss for the last couple of months - and queues about eight hours long have already been reported in some states where early voting was open. And this is projected to put people off a bit. It seems that this year, rather than the actual number of voters, the election will be entirely decided on which side has the most weather resilience and bladder control.
So I can only say to everyone what I said a week ago as well - if you're in America, and you can, just vote. For whoever you believe in - one of the two main parties or independents - because like I've said before I can guarantee you that you'll miss that right once you don't have it. I can only wait for the result, and leave you with this song that was being bandied about like the Hymn of the Fayth as a ray of hope all over the nations a couple of months ago. His progress so far has been amazing, for someone who I had hardly heard of a year ago - now he just needs to finish the race. It has to happen this time. Please.
Just 36 more hours. I hope that you get the result that you want. (Unless you're voting for the Republicans, in which case I wouldn't be telling the truth if I said anything other than I hope it goes positively disastrously for you.)
