Yes we can

Hello, good evening and welcome to the Cynical British election coverage for 2008 (sponsored by Crunchy Nut, McVitie's Digestive Biscuits, etc, etc). Whitney is going to have her friends from the college round to watch the results as they come in, so I'll be sitting here updating from a flat full of Obama fangirls, making it most likely far more interesting and significantly less impartial than most of the other reports you might see around this time. Throughout the process of the Americans trying to show that they can elect a suitable leader for themselves, I'll be increasingly smashing my neurotic habit of strictly making a maximum of one post a day by updating with the numbers from the electoral college as they're received.

I can't even remember if I knew how the system worked when I lived in Britain, so if anyone who reads this doesn't - each state has a certain number of Electoral College votes that are given to the candidate that receives the largest proportion of the vote from the population (there are some states that split their votes depending on the percentages, but... they don't really matter at the moment). The more populous a state, the more electoral votes it has, and there are a total of 538 of them. Therefore, the first to 270 wins. As each district within each state reports the number of votes from the population it's counted, there comes a point at which one side is clearly ahead and the others can't mathematically catch up, at which point the result from that state is declared and its number of electoral votes is added to the running total. Simple, isn't it? To the man who designed Spaghetti Junction, maybe.

The country disappointed me and the whole rest of the world four years ago (is there anyone in the entire world outside who doesn't want Obama to win now? We should get a vote, too - 1776 was clearly a mistake), but I had no idea of the numbers at that point, and this time I'm rather confident in a good result. At least, I'd like to be. I'm actually terrified, to be honest. So as somebody on The Big Breakfast years ago taught me always to bet against myself to alleviate any disappointment, I will extend the invitation that if you elect a decent president then you're welcome to point out and correct all my Britishisms as I try to speak American for an entire month week. If not, then obviously I'm declaring our flat a colony of Britain.

Good luck, everyone.

Yes we can

Results have started to trickle in, though they're nothing to get excited about as yet - there's one district in Kentucky and literally three votes from Maine showing up on one map that I'm visiting just now. The results are exactly as you'd expect from those states so far.

Political Wire has told me exactly when you can go to bed: basically, if Obama gets Virginia in ten minutes, then he's most likely won. If he gets any of the three states that report half an hour later, he's won. If he gets Pennsylvania half another hour later, which he will, then he's won. Unless all the polls are wrong, which they could be.

Here's a summary that tells you about all there is to know at the moment.

States so far: 0/50
Electoral votes decided so far: 0/538
Democrats: 0
Republicans: 0

Yes we can

I forgot about the running totals as the votes are counted up. I thought that this would be like the Eurovision Song Contest somehow and they could just go around the states that had closed and asked them for their totals. "McCain, nul points" - and finished. Instead, all the news sites and channels insist on reporting that "Oh, McCain is up 40% in Indiana...

...but we've only counted five votes so far." It's not good for my stress levels. The fact that the ones likely to report first are the leaning to strong Republicans and one useless little 3-vote blue state (sorry, Vermont) does not help.

For some reason Vermont is being reported as definitely blue even though 0% of it is reporting. Kentucky is similarly red even though it's only 13% complete, and with numbers this low I resisted actually updating this in the same way because it seems to give the reds a large percentage lead, but seeing as virtually everyone seems to agree...

States so far: 2/50
Electoral votes decided so far: 11/538
Democrats: 3
Republicans: 8

Yes we can

CNN have whacked their predictions all the way up to 77-34 for the moment, but I'm not going to do that. Because I'm a maverick. What I can say at the moment, though, is that despite the very small percentage of districts reporting at the moment, Florida and North Carolina are looking good for us at the moment, and that's not including the large advantage in early votes. McCain really rather needs both of those to have a hope.

This is starting to look better now!

States so far: 2/50
Electoral votes decided so far: 11/538
Democrats: 3
Republicans: 8

Yes we can

Stop giving me what might possibly probably happen! CNN's just given Pennsylvania to Obama after about a thousand votes were counted - this is not a surprise, more of a relief, because McCain needs it to have a realistic chance of winning. MSNBC is now broadcasting from a virtual arched classical studio that looks like series 8 of Knightmare.

Frustratingly it's not definite at all yet, but I can no longer keep decent track of what's actually likely and will just agree with them, because I'm such a maverick that I'm relinquishing my maverick status.

States so far: About 15/50
Electoral votes decided so far: 136ish/538
Democrats: 102ish
Republicans: 34ish

Yes we can

Sticking with CNN's numbers for now because I like them, imaginary though they may be, things look increasingly positive. I'd forgotten about New York, and that's another near-30 boost. If (if) all of CNN's predictions (+174) are correct, and Obama gets both North Carolina (+15) and Florida (+27), then we can take California (+55) as given and it's all over.

That's a best-case scenario - he could also get one of them and make it up with his other states, which might be more likely. Still, keep on hoping.

States so far: 23/50
Electoral votes decided so far: 223/538 (+89 from obvious states = 312)
Democrats: 174 (+55 from California = 229)
Republicans: 49 (+34 from Texas = 83)
Tabs I have open: 16

Yes we can

CNN's just called Ohio for Obama. Now, this is still a bit premature seeing as it follows the tradition of only 20% of precincts reporting, but if their other predictions are correct then this completely secures it. The man on CNN's just demonstrated that even if McCain gets every other state he possibly can short of divine intervention he still ends up on about 268 - he was at it for about five minutes and kept going "Well, I'll give him this one even though he'll never get it". Still to come for Obama are New Mexico, most likely Colorado, and all of the West coast - California, Oregon, Washington. I'm going to be optimistic and include those in my tally now. Take that.

States so far: 27/50 (33/50 with predictions)
Electoral votes decided so far: 272/538 (315 with predictions)
Democrats: 194 (+NM +CO +CA +OR +WA = 281)
Republicans: 78 (+TX = 112)

Yes we can

The crowd in Phoenix are looking very damp and glum just now.

Anyway, it's quietened down quite a lot since the initial rush, hasn't it? At first I was hugely worried because a couple of very red or leaning-red-but-might-turn states went first and gave me a heart attack thinking that everything was turning to the Republicans. But then an avalanche started, and a blue flood that I initially thought was overoptimistic seems to have held. I have about twelve different poll sites open, my processor may actually be melting, and I'm having difficult putting words and letters in the right order - but on the whole I now feel safe in calming down.

Perhaps a slight surprise is that while North Carolina has been getting gradually closer (it was about 3000 last time I checked), Virginia, which I had thought was a lost cause very early on, is now about 50,000 ahead for Obama. And that, unlike all other results so far, is with 90% reporting. At the moment, if all predictions are correct, Obama wins by 14 electoral votes - but I wouldn't say no to an extra state, even if the one of those two that looks likely is now 13 instead of 15.

CNN have nothing to report now, so they're arguing about whether they're a centrist or leftist country and asking whether they've moved. The result is comfortable enough that the preferred coverage of the election in the flat has switched to the the smuggest man in the world and the second-smuggest man in the world, even if CNN have holographic buildings springing out of their table.

I've switched one of my obvious predicted states from Colorado to Hawaii. It feels a bit safer.

States so far: 35/50 (39/50 with predictions)
Electoral votes decided so far: 342/538 (469 with predictions)
Democrats: 207 (+HI +CA +OR +WA = 284)
Republicans: 135

Yes we can!

YES YES YES BOLLOCKS I HAVE TO SPEAK AMERICAN FOR A WEEK YES YES

The polls are closed on the west coast. Barack Obama is now above 270 and will be the President. Before we even have certain results from the states still swinging, it's all over.

Well done, America - I think I like you a lot more than I have done for the last eight years. For the first time... I'm actually quite proud to be here.

Here, have some Obiscuits.