36 hours

[davidn]

This election's absolutely killing me. I thought it was tense in September, and have watched the poll numbers daily since then, but nothing can describe what it's like here in the thick of it - there's absolutely no escaping it. Obama's been on television telling people not to get cocky even though he's miles ahead, McCain's been on television telling people how pleased he is he's going to win even though he's miles behind, and the conflicting numbers from all over the place put me in real doubt that anyone can guess what's going to happen tomorrow.

I'm surprised, in fact, that some sources say it's so close - a gap of a few percent is significant, of course, but in Britain we just don't let anyone as stupid as the current runners-up anywhere near leadership of the country (unless they're really entertaining). Though I know that Obama is virtually certain to win all the states that Kerry did and then just has to win one or two of the eight states that he has slightly more than a 50% chance in, that a computer simulation of all the possible outcomes put Obama's victory at a chance of 99.8%, that the Democrats are overwhelmingly ahead in early voting, and that even McCain's home state of Arizona is looking a bit weak at the moment... there's still a tiny, tiny doubt there. Especially as the numbers seem to be narrowing very slightly towards the end. And it's pretty painful - sometimes you just want to hibernate for a while and wake up when it's finally all over.

There are two large difficulties with the polls this year - the idea that people might say that they've voting for Obama in an overcompensation for their subconscious fear of racism and then not really go for him on Tuesday, and the thought that with so many new voters this year on Obama's side but not being polled, his lead might actually be larger than thought at the moment. Ideally these two effects would just cancel each other out, but they really could mean anything for the numbers. Another problem is that so many places seem so spectacularly unprepared for the election taking place - you would think it would have been pretty difficult to miss for the last couple of months - and queues about eight hours long have already been reported in some states where early voting was open. And this is projected to put people off a bit. It seems that this year, rather than the actual number of voters, the election will be entirely decided on which side has the most weather resilience and bladder control.

So I can only say to everyone what I said a week ago as well - if you're in America, and you can, just vote. For whoever you believe in - one of the two main parties or independents - because like I've said before I can guarantee you that you'll miss that right once you don't have it. I can only wait for the result, and leave you with this song that was being bandied about like the Hymn of the Fayth as a ray of hope all over the nations a couple of months ago. His progress so far has been amazing, for someone who I had hardly heard of a year ago - now he just needs to finish the race. It has to happen this time. Please.

Just 36 more hours. I hope that you get the result that you want. (Unless you're voting for the Republicans, in which case I wouldn't be telling the truth if I said anything other than I hope it goes positively disastrously for you.)

Comments

[jenny0.livejournal.com]

I'm so excited for tomorrow. I'm taking the whole afternoon off, because the early voting lines have just been ridiculous - I drive by the voter bureau on my way to/from work, and the line is always out the door and down the sidewalk. I'm feeling pretty good about the polls so far - like David explained above I think they actually are representative of how the voting will go.

[diarytypething.livejournal.com]

Do you know what would happen if there are people still waiting when the polls close? Would they be turned away even if they've been there for a couple of hours? I'm genuinely curious about this, and asking a keen American voter seems like the sensible way to get an answer.

[jenny0.livejournal.com]

I think they get turned away. I read something recently that during the last election (I think?) some voting precincts in Colorado (or a similarly snowy western state) decided to keep the polls open longer so that people could make it there through thirty-six feet of snow (or whatever). There was an ensuing froo-fraw from voters who were not able to vote because they lived in districts that did not extend voting. So presumably if your polling place is open until 6:00, you can't vote after 6:00. Whether this applies to people who are already there I don't know. With the dismal voter turnout this country usually has, I don't think it's often an issue.

[lordrosemount.livejournal.com]

Actually it's dependent on state laws - and most states' laws are such that if you're in the line when polls close, you get to vote. The problem with that state was that they'd voluntarily decided to extend hours to accommodate those still travelling to the polls, which they weren't compelled to do (and, indeed, in some cases didn't), so then you'd have questions over election tampering based on which political direction the districts that did and did not extend voting leaned towards.

[jenny0.livejournal.com]

Thanks for clarification - I hadn't paid much attention to the original article. It does seem like that kind of decision should be made state-wide, to avoid these kinds of complications.

[lordrosemount.livejournal.com]

Oh, I didn't even read it - I just guessed! :)

[kjorteo]

In New Mexico in 2006, at least, they made it so that no new people could get in line as of when the polls "closed," but everyone who was already in line at the cutoff point was still good, and they just remained open (turning away latecomers) until everyone who was already there finished.