36 hours

[davidn]

This election's absolutely killing me. I thought it was tense in September, and have watched the poll numbers daily since then, but nothing can describe what it's like here in the thick of it - there's absolutely no escaping it. Obama's been on television telling people not to get cocky even though he's miles ahead, McCain's been on television telling people how pleased he is he's going to win even though he's miles behind, and the conflicting numbers from all over the place put me in real doubt that anyone can guess what's going to happen tomorrow.

I'm surprised, in fact, that some sources say it's so close - a gap of a few percent is significant, of course, but in Britain we just don't let anyone as stupid as the current runners-up anywhere near leadership of the country (unless they're really entertaining). Though I know that Obama is virtually certain to win all the states that Kerry did and then just has to win one or two of the eight states that he has slightly more than a 50% chance in, that a computer simulation of all the possible outcomes put Obama's victory at a chance of 99.8%, that the Democrats are overwhelmingly ahead in early voting, and that even McCain's home state of Arizona is looking a bit weak at the moment... there's still a tiny, tiny doubt there. Especially as the numbers seem to be narrowing very slightly towards the end. And it's pretty painful - sometimes you just want to hibernate for a while and wake up when it's finally all over.

There are two large difficulties with the polls this year - the idea that people might say that they've voting for Obama in an overcompensation for their subconscious fear of racism and then not really go for him on Tuesday, and the thought that with so many new voters this year on Obama's side but not being polled, his lead might actually be larger than thought at the moment. Ideally these two effects would just cancel each other out, but they really could mean anything for the numbers. Another problem is that so many places seem so spectacularly unprepared for the election taking place - you would think it would have been pretty difficult to miss for the last couple of months - and queues about eight hours long have already been reported in some states where early voting was open. And this is projected to put people off a bit. It seems that this year, rather than the actual number of voters, the election will be entirely decided on which side has the most weather resilience and bladder control.

So I can only say to everyone what I said a week ago as well - if you're in America, and you can, just vote. For whoever you believe in - one of the two main parties or independents - because like I've said before I can guarantee you that you'll miss that right once you don't have it. I can only wait for the result, and leave you with this song that was being bandied about like the Hymn of the Fayth as a ray of hope all over the nations a couple of months ago. His progress so far has been amazing, for someone who I had hardly heard of a year ago - now he just needs to finish the race. It has to happen this time. Please.

Just 36 more hours. I hope that you get the result that you want. (Unless you're voting for the Republicans, in which case I wouldn't be telling the truth if I said anything other than I hope it goes positively disastrously for you.)

Comments

[kjorteo]

I've said this before, and it bears repeating. If there's one thing I hope I can contribute to the massive outreach effort both sides are employing, one message I can get as many people to take to heart as I possibly can, and hopefully even have them spread on to their friends and so on, it is this:

Vote absentee.

Voting is absolutely vital, especially in elections like this. It's almost unthinkable that, as you put it, "rather than the actual number of voters, the election will be entirely decided on which side has the most weather resilience and bladder control," and yet that's what we're seeing. Not only that, but how many people can't vote because for whatever completely insane reason, Election Day isn't a holiday? The degree of sheer torture voters are being asked to put themselves through just so their vote could count--get out of work at 5:00 (if you're lucky) and go stand in line until about midnight--is absolutely ridiculous. Fortunately, we already have a solution.

When you vote absentee, you can:

1. Vote early. Just as soon as it takes to get the form in the mail and then send it back.
   
2. Be informed. Should judge Stanley Whitaker be retained as judge of New Mexico's 2nd Judicial district (Bernalillo county)? Hell if I know who he even is, but what if there's secretly a really tight race and my vote could accidentally throw out a decent man or keep a bad judge in? If you're at a polling place, in the booth, and questions like this come up, there's really nothing you can do. At home, it's an open-book test, and you have free access to word from your friends, newspapers, Google, anything. You can actually research the races and cast votes once you know. (Yes, he should, by the way.)
   
3. Take your time. This sort of ties in with #3. The only thing worse than being at the back of a six-hour line is being at the front, in the booth, feeling the pressure of everyone behind you. If you don't know what's at stake in the local elections, you're not really in a good position to take out your phone and call around and do extensive research when thousands of people are mentally willing you to die for not being done ten minutes ago. When I voted this year, it took me a week to fill out the ballot, and no one was even slightly inconvenienced.
   
4. Beat the questionable polling place standards. We've all heard the horror stories about paperless electronic voting machines, clueless poll workers in complete disarray, etc. Absentee ballots, being physical ballots you physically fill out and turn back in, are their own paper trail. In short, vote absentee if you want to be 100% sure your vote actually counts.

In 2006, I was watching the local news on election day. They had continuing coverage (they would just cut back to give us an update every hour or so) about a polling place in utter chaos, with lines that they weren't done processing until somewhere between midnight and two in the morning. I had already sent my absentee ballot in two weeks prior, and was currently comfortably in bed, watching the news.

[davidn]

When I saw the extent of the "Information for voters" pamphlet (novel, more like) that came through the post at the start of the week I did get some idea of why nobody seems to have told the ballot workers there's an election coming up - it's the sheer size of the voting sheet. In Britain, it's mostly just ticking a box, throwing it at someone and walking out - here, it seems to be half an exam paper and I'm told that the one I'm looking at here is one of the shorter ones.

Given your advantages, of course, I can't understand why more people wouldn't vote absentee. I actually had an absentee vote in Scotland because I lived somewhere other than where I was actually registered, but given its simplicity it didn't really have any of the benefits you listed there apart from not actually having to go out to vote.

As for actually getting to the polls, well, more people should work like us :) If the country gave me a vote as well as taxing me, I could just tell people at work that the refining workflow would be finished as soon as I'd helped their country get back into line.